Canadian Immigration Crystal Ball #2020: 10, 5, and 1 Prediction for the Next 1, 5, and 10 Years

It’s early enough in the New Year and we’re still greeting individuals, so forgive me for the somewhat belated first substantive post of the New Year.

I simultaneously often write three to four at the same, often with only one making it to the website. I probably have a hundred different articles in some form of 5-10% completion but unfortunately never seeing the light of day.

However, this is an important one. This one is written knowing there are people watching who would like to know what I am looking at in terms of the next one, five, and ten years of Canadian immigration and refugee law (if I last that long in the game). I hope this also peaks the interests of the academics, policy-makers, and media who explore these a bit further.

This imperfect vehicle we call Canadian immigration only works through constant renewal. When we see challenges and opportunities forthcoming and don’t act upon them in a reasonable period of time we miss out on opportunity and create avoidable hardship.

Crystal Ball Approach

Recently I have been to (and participated in) a few Crystal Ball talks where I predicted a bit on where things are going.

I recently wrote a paper for the CLEBC B.C’s Immigration Issues in Depth 2019 Conference titled “On Safety Nets and Sped Up ProcessesOn Safety Nets and Sped Up Processes – Will Tao

In the paper I do some crystal-balling but I stick to general commentary. I’m going to be bolder in this piece and make actual predictions.

I have chosen 1, 5, and 10 years as various markers. I have also chosen 10, 5, and 1 prediction to reflect the greater difficult predicting things that are further away.

I’m also going to be actively (and perhaps with bias) trying to address/tackle some of these things in my own practice.

I will state these broadly (headline style) in this post and follow-up with more detail analysis on these discussion points through out other pieces this year.

One-Year Predictions

1) H&C Refusal Rates Go Up Significantly As Do Removals Before First-Stage Approval;

2) JR Leave Refusal Rates/Dismissal Rates Temporary Go Up Post-Vavilov But Straighten Out as (Un)reasonableness Better Understood in Case Law.

3) Self-Employed Permanent Residence Undergoes a Re-Think Much to Megan Markle’s Chagrin.

4) Parent and Grandparent Sponsorship Becomes (Returns) to a Random Draw  in April with Possible Weighted/Humanitarian Components in/or Follow-Up Draws;

5) DLIs Demand Greater Autonomy in Supporting International Students on Issues Such as Leave and Part-Time Studies;

6) Express Entry CRS Points Remain High – Creating Precarious Migration Issues. Government Contemplates Giving Additional Points for Low-Skilled Work Leading to Skilled Work;

7) The Pilots and Trial Programs (Caregiver Program, Municipal Nominee Program, Agrifood) Go Through Hiccups;

8) Exit Entry Regulations Lead to Deportations (including erroneous ones) leading to Litigation and Returns to Canada;

9) More SDS or Specialized Programs (Vulnerable Worker, VTIPS, etc) but Greater Concern over Veiled Bias/Credibility/Investigation Findings;

10) Inadequate (but possibly AI/Machine-Generated) Procedural Fairness Letters Get Challenged Frequently Under Procedural Fairness – Leading to Interesting post-Vavilov Interpretation Challenges/Opportunities.

Five-Year Predictions

1) Indigenous Approaches/Practices Become More Common in Canadian Immigration. More Indigenous Members of Tribunals are Appointed/Indigenous Officer’s Hired. Indigenous PNP Programs Replace/Complement Many of the Regional Programs;

2) Post-Graduate Work Permits are Limited to Less Schools for Shorter Durations (but Extendable with Employment);

3) Discretionary Jurisdiction (Particularly in Context of Rehabilitation Elements and Long-Term Permanent Residents) Under Goes a Re-Think;

4) Misrepresentation under s.40 IRPA moves to a spectrum approach – with Punishments Ranging from One-Year to Lifelong;

5) The Charter Continues to Fail to Properly Uphold Migrant Rights;

Ten-Year Prediction

1) Former Canadian Immigration Students Demand (and Obtain) a Group Exemption (think DACA) After it is Revealed Significant Numbers of Overstays Still in Canada

Hopefully I am around still doing this work in 10 years to check in to see how these predictions went!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *